Watch water

kw: observations, water, shortages

This chunk of the Texas panhandle (near the so-named town) is green for one reason: the Ogallala Aquifer. The left quarter of the image is December imaging, the rest is June. Irrigation using Ogallala groundwater is what keeps the area from being a howling desert.

This huge underground mass of water-laden sedimentary rock has supported the agricultural miracle of the West for most of a century. It is mined water, though, and it is running out. Water is being removed throughout the eight states in which the aquifer occurs, but is replenished only by rainfall on small exposures in South Dakota's Badlands, a semi-arid area (less than 16 inches yearly moisture).

The aquifer is one reason the nation seems to have enough water to go around. When it runs out, in the lifetime of today's high school and college youngsters, the U.S. will follow Yemen and other countries in rationing water.

The U.S. is lucky. Few aquifers around the world are so large, and a couple of those that do are in areas with plenty of rainfall already. Nearly all the world's people have to rely on rainfall and its derived waters in rivers and lakes for all their water needs. As world population grows, more and more areas will suffer water shortages. Take a look at this map, showing where shortages occurred into the late 1990s (click for a larger version):

This is one of four maps to be found in this BBC article. The map that follows is the third one, showing expected water stress in the 2050s. By then my son will be in his 70s, but what of his children? We are about fifteen years into World War III already, and it is primarily motivated by cultural and religious extremism. WWIV, or a morphed WWIII, will be fought over water. You can see in the 2050s map that China and India, where one-third of humanity resides, will be in serious trouble long before 2050. And by then Africa could be home to another one-sixth, making half of the human race desperate for water.

Will climate change help, or harm the situation? A major interpretation of a warmer climate is that global total rainfall will increase. However, some areas could experience less instead of more. It is certain that wars will be fought over access to water; their location is also pretty easy to predict in general terms: between Russia and the water-poor areas south of Siberia, and between the equatorial African countries and their neighbors to both the north and south.

I expect the Water Wars to begin in my lifetime; nobody will wait for 2050. Plan accordingly.