Am I moving left or did Bubba move right?

kw: current events, world events, articles

I just read in the current (Oct 1, 2012) issue of Time Magazine the article "The Case for Optimism" by Bill Clinton. I was quite unfavorable to President Clinton while he was in office, but I did notice that he moderated quite a bit during his second term, to the point that George W. Bush began his first term seeming to be to Clinton's left. Of course, 9/11 and the two wars changed all that. A wartime President has to govern from the right, as FDR and Truman both did.

In the article, Mr. Clinton stressed five items, which I'll list along with their subtitles:

1. Technology: Phones Mean Freedom
2. Health: Healthy Communities Prosper
3. Economy: Green Energy Equals Good Business
4. Equality: Women Rule
5. Justice: The Fight for the Future is Now

To some extent, the article could be considered a long plug for the Clinton Global Initiative, because CGI efforts are mentioned throughout. However, that is the arena where he spends his time, and what he knows the best. It is amazing that more than 85% of everybody has access to a cell phone. This is good for business, it is good for the economies of developing countries, and it is making the notion of a Digital Divide obsolete. Similar things could be said for green energy. And listen: resource conservation was originally a Conservative cause (just ask Teddy Roosevelt). The level of personal responsibility that widespread communications make possible just makes a Conservative grin. The other three areas, while appearing more "Liberal", are treated in an even-handed way that nobody is likely to argue with very much.

It is a funny thing, that a decade or so of being out of office has gone a long way towards rehabilitating the former President. There were a few storm clouds overhead by the end of his second term, mostly because of personal failings. But he is attaining stature as a statesman, a "wise old head", and people seem more ready to forgive (me, too, slightly grudgingly).

The CGI is worth a look, not because they are a charity but because they aren't. CGI is a connection machine for those wishing to do good and those who know how to go about it. Perhaps it is not a FaceBook for the philanthropically inclined, but that gives a bit of its flavor.

You'd think they forgot the TV cameras were on

kw: politics, religion, current events

I hardly saw any of the Democratic Convention, but I did catch the odd "Booing God" moment. Here is how it was reported by Josh Lederman and Julie Pace of the Associated Press, as reported on Yahoo News:

Needled by Mitt Romney and other Republicans, Democrats hurriedly rewrote their convention platform Wednesday to add a mention of God and declare Jerusalem the capital of Israel after President Barack Obama intervened to order the changes.

The embarrassing reversal was compounded by chaos and uncertainty on the convention floor. Three times Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, the convention chairman, called for a voice vote on the changes and each time the yes and no votes seemed to balance each other out. On the third attempt, Villaraigosa ruled the amendments were approved — triggering boos from many in the audience.

I give credit to the President for requesting the changes, even though it has the flavor of too little, too late. Dear party leaders: when you detect you are in the hole, at least stop digging!

Commentators favorable to the Democrats have been scrambling ever since, stating that the ones who'd voted No were booing Mayor Villaraigosa, not God or Jerusalem. It doesn't matter. They were against the changes, some perhaps for good reason, and some for no good reason.

It is well known that militant atheists are a vocal constituency of the Democratic party. They are tentatively supported by a larger, less vocal number who believe religion has no place in politics. I tend to sympathize with this latter bunch, though I disagree. It is also well known that a constituency of anti-Zionists (some of them Jews) has also found a home among the Democrats. Some of these, probably a minority (and certainly none of the Jews), are also anti-semitic, though they've learned to keep that rather quiet. It appears that it was largely due to these folks' influence that administration officials recently met with representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Whether a party platform mentions reliance on God, doesn't concern me much. It does concern me that the status of Jerusalem was initially left out, and had to be reinstated by Presidential request.

Are royals obsolete?

kw: current events, royal families

My wife has been reading the online Japanese newspapers, and recently informed me of the controversies surrounding the succession to the Chrysanthemum Throne of Japan. There are miles of ink on this, nearly all of it in Japanese, but this Wikipedia Article is a good starting point for the English-language reader.

To put it briefly, Crown Prince Naruhito married a bit late, and his wife Masako was just twenty-nine and a half on their wedding day. Then it took eight years before they had a child, a girl who is now ten years old, Princess Toshi (Aiko). They have no other children. The prince's brother Akishino is second in line to the throne, and Akishino's five-year-old son is third in line. Aiko is presently out of the loop.

Controversy one: Discussions have been going on for years whether to allow Aiko to succeed to the throne after her father, effectively putting her second in line. The negative opinion of the current Prime Minister indicates there is little chance of a new law to that effect. It is said, but seldom printed, that the problem is the added support needed for a larger royal family into the future: money problems.

Controversy two: The failure of Crown Princess Masako to produce further children led to a nervous breakdown and several years of psychotherapy. Her father-in-law, the Emperor, has been less than supportive, such that she declined to visit him during a recent hospital stay of nineteen days. The Crown Prince and his family live on the palace compound, but in isolation. The little cousins apparently nearly never meet.

To be short about it, if these "royals" are genuinely noble, both Princes ought, upon the death of the Emperor, to abdicate and declare the Chrysanthemum Throne to be vacant forever. Let most of the royal properties become museums and other tourist attractions. The families will need national support for this generation, but succeeding generations would need to get a job.

On our walk today, my wife and I had a long talk along these lines. I have similar opinions about the royal families of Europe. It seems the only one that brings in enough tourist money to "pay for itself" is the British royal family of Queen Elizabeth. This is unlikely to continue much longer, unless Prince William turns into a real whiz-bang of a popular king a few decades from now. But in my opinion, history has left royalty behind.

And it is dangerous to have monarchical leaders. Most current governments are dictatorships, and the reason we hear little about most of those are that they are poor. Dictatorship equates with a poor economy. Republics and even socialist republics simply do better.

Complete lack of discrimination

kw: commentary, current events

When I saw this in the mail, I almost threw it away unopened. What do the Time editors think they are doing?

The cover blurb mentions four "protest" movements. I have yet to open the issue, so I don't know if others are discussed, but these four pretty are much cover the gamut:

• "Arab Spring" – This is a mixed bag. Starting in Tunisia, several brutal, falsely Muslim dictators were overthrown. In a few cases, however, Egypt in particular, this has led to a great strengthening of radical Islamic factions. This would be a bad thing for the world even if America didn't exist. (It would probably be even worse…)
  
• Athens – I suppose the people have a right to protest, but they have badly mis-aimed. They ought to be directing their anger at several prior administrations, plus the current one, that got them into this economic morass, and because they did so. But without the proposed austerity measures—and more to come, you can be sure—the country will go belly-up and descend into overt civil war.
  
• Occupy Wall Street (or wherever) – This began as a marginally good thing, to "defend" the "other 99%", which is anybody but the super-rich. It soon descended to an extended Woodstock, without the good music, but with rampant immorality (not just sexual), defecation everywhere, and a filthy, smelly mass of ingrates who represent quite a different 1%, the irresponsible 1% who don't want to work but want government to support their every whim. The Mayors were right to drive them out.
  
• Moscow – Loosely based on Arab Spring, this doomed movement is up against a very different foe. Let us recall that Mr. Putin once directed the KGB, and there is enough of the old apparatus in place to cause huge mischief. This will mainly just set back Russian progress by another generation.
  

I came of age in the 1965-1975 "sixties", when protest movements were typically more focused, better led and eventually more effective than any of the "Occupy" hooligan groups. Full disclosure: many of the protests were very left-wing, and I am conservative. I was a heckler, sufficiently effective that I survived a couple of murder attempts.

While the impact of this year's protest movements has indeed been significant, they certainly don't deserve to be lumped indiscriminately together as Time's "person of the year".

Hurricane diary 6 - Aftermath

kw: current events, observations, weather, hurricanes

Everybody has been using the line "Goodnight, Irene" from a song nearly nobody alive has ever heard. I am not sure Leadbelly would be pleased.

While the mid-Atlantic region is filled mostly with a sense of relief (except for nine families that suffered fatalities - breathe a prayer for their comfort), New York and New England have huge numbers of power outages, and people facing a week or more without electricity. My son in New Jersey said there are three million without power, though most of them can expect to have it restored in the next two days. The only saving grace here is that the weather will remain temperate, so air conditioning isn't strictly needed.

I don't know what I would do if I had a week or two without electricity. I don't think I would stay elsewhere, because I'd want to be on hand to discourage looting. We would learn how to make the most of daylight hours, as our grandparents did, rising and retiring with the sun. While I have enough vacation time accrued to stay at home, not all of my colleagues are so fortunate. This really brings home how critically dependent we are on the electric grid for our well-being.

For most of us, all is well that ended well. Lend a hand to any neighbor for whom it didn't end as well.

Hurricane diary 5 - New England under the gun

kw: current events, observations, weather, hurricanes

This Intellicast radar map shows that this area is in a dry band behind the storm, which is, as of 8:00 AM, bearing down on New York City.

Upper New York state and southern New England are in the heavy rain. We were told on a newscast that, because Boston will be on the east side of the storm, it will get heavier winds than we got.

My concern is for NYC skyscrapers. The wind may be only 50+ mph (80+kph) at ground level, but it'll be twice that at the fortieth storey of tall buildings. I'll be interested to find out what the anemometer atop the Empire State Building records. I believe it is at the 102^d floor.

Hurricane diary 4 - Rainy night

kw: current events, observations, weather, hurricanes

At midnight we turned in, hoping for the best. It was raining hard, and windy, but not a howling wind as I'd expected. I slept fitfully, so I was able to note that at 1:00, 2:30 and just before 4:00 AM the rain continued steady, and the wind the same, probably in the 35-40 mph range. Then I slept until 7:00, and at present there is no rain and very little wind. We didn't lose power, but the news station reports that about 140,000 lost power in SE Pennsylvania and 100,000 in Delaware. This is much better than we expected.

Hurricane diary 3 - Rain band 3

kw: current events, observations, weather, hurricanes

The radar at 11:40 PM shows that the third rain band has just passed, and a finger of dryer air has pushed into the region. Rainfall total is approaching four inches.

We are starting to get heavier winds, in the 30-40 range (50-65 kph), though these have died down just now. We still have power (so I have internet).

Hurricane diary 2 - Rain band 2

kw: current events, observations, weather, hurricanes

Rain Band 2 of Irene hit about 5:00 PM, and the rain just stopped about 7:00 PM.

On the advice of friends, we have filled the bathtub with cold water, so we'll have something to flush the toilet with in case power is lost long enough to shut down the water system.

Half an hour ago Mayor Nutter of Philadelphia finished a news conference announcing a state of emergency. Those still in any flood-prone area are strongly exhorted to leave NOW, and everyone else needs to stay indoors.

We live at an elevation above 250 feet, several miles from the nearest river. Hanging in there.

Hurricane diary 1 - Rain band 1

kw: current events, observations, weather, hurricanes

This crop from the Intellicast interactive radar image shows the situation just after the first rain band north of Hurricane Irene passed our area, which is just south of the P in Philadelphia. We had rain from about 2:00 until 3:30 PM.

A glance at the birdbath, which was emptied at Noon, shows a half inch. Its bowl is flat bottomed and the sides are straight, so that is a real half inch. Just a foretaste of what is to come.

The storm's eye is overland in easternmost North Carolina. Its closest approach to the Philadelphia area is expected about 3:00 AM tomorrow morning. If the rain signature of the storm remains the same, the hardest rain will have already fallen by then.

The worry will be the strong winds, with increased impact because of the rain they carry. We're expecting 50 mph (80 kph) steady, with gusts in the 60-70 (95-110) range. Our three big trees are all south of the house, and the winds will be out of the north and northwest, which makes me most concerned for my neighbors.

We have plenty of water and some imperishable foods, so we're ready for at least a couple days without power if it comes to that. We put one car in the garage and moved the other to the end of the driveway farthest from all trees. Tomorrow morning's church meetings are cancelled. Many of our congregants drive 20-40 minutes to get there, and driving might be rather hazardous if there is a lot of wind damage such as downed trees and power lines.

Super yawn but no freedom dawn

kw: current events, sports, politics

Here in the Philadelphia area, about half my colleagues at work are anti-Pittsburgh, and the other half are Steelers fans. Nobody talked about yesterday's game today, however. All the talk I heard was about the ads and the flub by Christine A. I didn't see the game: no cable, and the Fox broadcast doesn't come reliably to my antenna. I watched AFV and the Nature program on PBS instead, and turned in early.

On the Egypt front, the various sides' positions are hardening, and while "only" a couple of hundred deaths have so far resulted, there could be a real blood bath there with the tiniest of sparks. I mourn in advance, and pray. I marvel that the political "dignity" of an 82-year-old despot is more important to him than the lives of so many of his countrymen. That is the proof he is a despot.

The ice arrives - whew!

kw: local events, current events, weather phenomena, ice

Considering that an inch of ice has blanketed the Dallas area, that close to a meter of snow has hit Chicago, the half-centimeter of ice we got overnight, where I live south of Philadelphia, is a huge relief. This pic shows the dogwood tree in my back yard, taken at 5:30 this morning.

I came in to work early to avoid traffic on the road, but found that the roads were still warm enough to be wet rather than slick. Whew! The last time there was ice in this area that stuck to the roads was, I am told, the year before we moved here, in 1994.

The worst ice I've seen was in 1984 when I lived in South Dakota. There was an inch on almost everything. Tree branches that managed to stay on the trees looked like two-inch (5cm) silvery sausages. It was too slick to walk—I practically crawled to the car—but I drove anyway and of course got in a crash. At 10 mph I still did $1,000 damage to my car.

Today, the temperature is supposed to reach 40°F (4°C) or more, and as the rain continues, wash all the ice away. Now that it is pushing 6:30 I'd better get some work done.

Liniment time!

kw: current events, blizzards

We had six prior snowstorms since October, and in most cases, the forecast proved to be an overestimate. The worst was a four-inch fall (ten cm) that had started out as a prediction for eight to twelve inches (20-30 cm). The predictions made Tuesday were for rain with a little snow mixed in on Wednesday morning, followed by heavier snow Wednesday evening, in the four to eight inch range (10-20 cm).

I arose Wednesday morning (yesterday) to an inch of snow on the ground and more falling. I didn't bother to shovel, just went to work early before other cars were on the road, just before 6:00 AM. It snowed until noon. I went home at 2:30 PM and shoveled off four inches of snow in about an hour. We have more than a thousand square feet of pavement that needs shoveling, including a 220-foot sidewalk. My wife helped a little, but she fell a couple days ago and bruised a knee rather badly, so I asked her to take it easy. By dinner time I was sore, sore, sore. The wind was howling by 7:00 PM and snow was falling hard. I went to bed early after taking a gram of Ibuprofen.

This morning I could see there was a lot of snow. My wife at first said it looked like half a foot, but when I went out, it was clear we'd had over a foot, probably fourteen inches (36 cm). I had a large breakfast and began shoveling at 7:00 AM. At 8:30 I called work to tell them I'd take the day off. My wife helped a lot this time, but it was still after 11:00 AM when we finished. Snow is piled head high all down our driveway and at its end. I had another gram of Ibuprofen with lunch (my wife took a more normal dose of 200 mg). It is just wearing off as I write, so I'm going to take another gram and head for bed. Let's hope I recover quickly. There's another blizzard forecast for next week.

A Darwinian view of abortion

kw: current events, abortion, evolution

When abortion was legalized about forty years ago, much was said about the elimination of back-alley "house of horrors" abortion clinics. I wish it were so. The case of Kermit Gosnell (I decline to use the title Dr.) shows that, somehow, the back alley is still with us. Some would say it shows the effect of a continuing social stigma, but the reality is much more banal. Clean clinics cost more, and far too many women have no medical insurance.

As much as I hate to admit it, abortion has a place in population moderation ("population control" bears too much hubris). The most modern methods of conception prevention, mis-named "birth control", are about 99% effective. It has been estimated and published a number of times that a woman in the Free World who uses the pill, an IUD, or a condom for every sexual encounter, intending to have no children during her thirty to forty years of fertility, will on average conceive three times. As a character in Jurassic Park said repeatedly, "Life will find a way." If a woman wants fewer than three children, what is she to do? RU-486 is one possibility, but only when used early. Abortion is the final resort.

In an ideal world with a generous economy, the cost of raising a child would not be a deterrent to having one. Welfare moms take note: you appear to be living in such an economy, albeit a bit skimpy on the "generous" side. But in the face of a planet that in forty years will be bearing nine billion persons, something has to give. The planetary economy will give out at some point.

However, there will always be wide differences in the number of children a particular woman or particular couple wishes to raise. Again, referring only to the free world, the cultural preference is now to have one or two children, not more. But some want more, and some want none. In Darwinian terms, what does this mean?

It means a lot of abortions. Abortions have become a factor in natural selection among humans. It can be imagined that the tendency to of some people to use abortion more than others is genetically determined, at least in part. People with those genetics will have fewer offspring than others, and many will have none. This will lead to a gradual reduction in "abortion-favoring" genes in the population. Generation after generation, the proportion of women who can "easily" choose abortion will decrease. Perhaps, if we are lucky, newer versions of the Pill will be developed that are more like 99.9% or 99.99% effective. Otherwise, the number of abortions will slowly decrease, and population will grow beyond UN projections.

Again, "Life will find a way," which in this case means population moderation is going to get harder as time goes on.