Genetics collides with human nature - scared yet?

kw: book reviews, nonfiction, genetic engineering, crispr, futurism, trends

I try to keep up to date with certain trends, including genetic engineering. When a technical field such as that is so productive and active, however, it is easy to get behind, and even to be blind-sided by developments. Prompted by a friend, I saw a podcast about gene editing, an interview with Jamie Metzl, so I got his latest book, Hacking Darwin: Genetic Engineering and the Future of Humanity. I find the possible futures outlined by the author deeply disturbing, even frightening.

Consider a doctor's visit in 2030; you want to have a baby with your spouse. You have been advised to seek pre-natal screening. You find that, rather than starting the baby with "ordinary" sex, it is now advisable to use In-Vitro Fertilization, followed by egg harvesting, and genetic testing of each of the several embryos thus produced (one cell taken from each embryo). Within a couple of days on a follow-up visit, the doctor shows the two of you a kind of dashboard with dozens of indicators showing how the embryos differ. Some will grow a little taller than the rest; some might be smarter; there are even a few subtle shades of skin color available; and while two embryos are likely to grow to be more intelligent, one of those also carries a significant risk of a troubling birth defect. You can't have everything, but you and your spouse go aside and weigh the options. If none is appealing, you can always try another batch, though it'll double the cost. Once an embryo is chosen, it is implanted and the others are frozen, where they will probably remain until you decide they can be discarded. Consider; this could happen before 2030!

Try to wrap your mind around the possibilities after another ten years: 2040. It is likely by then that you don't need to do egg harvesting from the female spouse; a cheek scraping or a drop of blood contains cells that can be turned into stem cells, and after a further process, thousands of ova, which the male spouse's sperm can fertilize. The dashboard not only has many more embryos to choose from, the number of genetic indicators now numbers in the thousands. Thankfully, the flurry of data has been pre-screened using Artificial Intelligence, and profiles for only a handful of embryos are presented, and for each, the top twenty most-important indicators are shown, though you can drill down into them all if you wish. As before, this process may be available before 2040.

Why would you do this? If, quite literally, everyone is having babies this way, there is great competitive pressure to set your baby up to be smart, strong, long-lived, tall, and good looking. If you take the "primitive way" of "winging it" with "ordinary" sex, you are most likely to have a child who would be average, or hopefully a bit above average (if both spouses are already a little above average). But that child will be way, way below average compared to nearly everyone else. Just by having "average" good health, he or she will pay more in medical insurance premiums, in anticipation of living a shorter life in poorer health than the norm.

Is this the kind of world we want to live in? Will we have a choice?

The bulk of Hacking Darwin explains the literal flood of new technologies being developed right now that portend this kind of future. The competitive nature in all of us ensures that any slight advantage to be gained by these new genetic techniques will be extremely popular. Will they be used by the rich (the first to be able to afford all of the techniques) to produce children who will easily become even richer, leaving the rest of humanity in the dust? They will most certainly try! When "designer babies" (not a new term, but now a reality on the horizon) become affordable for the rich, "Boom!", they'll go for it. A generation later, when the price has dropped to 1% of what it was, the middle class can try to play catch-up, but they'll be a generation behind.

In the last chapter or two of the book the author discusses the kinds of regulations that governments the world over will need to implement to even out the playing field. One look at history tells me he's spitting into a strong wind. Firstly, different nations will adopt different regulations and at different times. The present emotional battles over GM (genetically modified) crops and abortion will be as a friendly game of checkers compared to what will result. Medical tourism is going on now, for procedures that cost less elsewhere (Go to France for a bone marrow transplant, for example, where it costs 1/10 of the cost in the U.S., and the French have a better track record). Genetic tourism will soon be all the rage. Live in a country that outlaws the "big dashboard"? No problem. Take a month's vacation to somewhere less restrictive. Lie through your teeth about why you went…or don't return, if the questioners will be gun-toting officials. 

Put it all together, and an era of post-humanism is rapidly approaching. By 2050 or so, "Engineer your own Baby" kits will be available over-the-counter. By 2100, who will be left that would be recognizable as an "ordinary human" today? Maybe many, maybe few, possibly none. To the friend who suggested I listen to the podcast, I wrote, "I hope Jesus returns while there are still humans to return to."